About Custom Venom
Custom Venom is a fantasy sports analytics platform built on a simple belief: you deserve to know why we think what we think, and whether we've been right.
The Problem With Most Projections
Every fantasy platform gives you a single number. "Player X will score 18.2 points." No range. No explanation. No way to verify if their projections were any good last week, last month, or ever.
That number creates false confidence. Fantasy football is inherently uncertain — injuries happen mid-game, weather changes, coaches make weird decisions. A single projection pretends that variance doesn't exist.
Our Approach: Embrace Uncertainty, Earn Trust
Every projection displays a floor, median, and ceiling — what we call Strike Range™. This isn't hedging; it's honesty. Some weeks a player's outcomes are tightly clustered. Other weeks, they're volatile. You should see that.
When our models detect something meaningful — a soft matchup, increased usage, concerning workload trends — we surface it as a Toxin. But only when confidence is high enough. If we're not sure, we stay quiet. Silence is a feature, not a bug.
Our system tracks every projection against actual results. Weekly calibration reports measure whether our 80% confidence bands actually contain outcomes 80% of the time. When we're wrong, the system learns. When toxins underperform, they get quieter until they earn trust back. You can see this in our Toxicology Lab — a live audit of how every signal is performing.
The Technical Foundation
This isn't guesswork dressed up as data science. Our projections run through a five-stage machine learning pipeline that processes historical performance data, contextual factors, and real-time inputs. Quantile regression models generate the floor/median/ceiling ranges. A feedback loop compares predictions to actuals weekly and recalibrates.
Every projection includes a timestamp showing when the data was last refreshed. Stale data gets flagged. Broken signals get muted. The system is designed to be honest about its own limitations.
What We're Not
We're not trying to be right every time. That's impossible in a game with this much variance. We're not here to sell you certainty.
What we are is a system that gets better over time, shows its work, and lets you verify whether that trust is deserved.