How We Calculate This
The methodology behind every number on our track record. No black boxes — every metric is defined here.
What "In Range" Means
Every projection produces three numbers: a floor (10th percentile), a median (50th percentile), and a ceiling (90th percentile). These define the projected range.
A prediction is "in range" when the player's actual fantasy score lands anywhere between the floor and ceiling — inclusive. We do not cherry-pick a single point estimate and claim a hit when the actual is one point off. The range must contain the actual.
Why this is harder than it sounds: A 60% in-range rate on an 80th-percentile spread would be easy. Our floor–ceiling bands are calibrated to the 10th–90th percentile, making the test genuinely informative. Random guessing would produce ~80% by definition — the fact that we measure below 80% means the bands are tight enough to be meaningful, not just wide enough to always contain the actual.
How Floors and Ceilings Are Set
Projections are generated by a Monte Carlo simulation across 10,000 game scenarios per player, drawing from:
- Historical position-level scoring distributions (2019–2025)
- Opponent defensive strength (adjusted points allowed by position)
- Injury/practice status at projection time
- Game context: home/away, Vegas total, weather for outdoor stadiums
- CAF context signals, which widen or tighten the range without moving the median
The floor and ceiling are coverage targets, not percentiles of a per-player distribution. Across all players we aim for roughly 12% of actual results to finish below the floor and roughly 15% to finish above the ceiling. That is a statement about the population over a season, not a claim about any single row: we do not compute a per-player probability curve, so we do not describe these as p10/p90. "All players" means every player we actually projected for that week — a player the model expects not to play carries no range, so there is nothing to be right or wrong about. Everyone else counts, including players whose floor is zero. The median is our best single-point estimate. Full methodology →
Walk-forward calibration adjusts these distributions each week based on recent prediction errors, so the model self-corrects over the course of a season.
Our Commitment
No retroactive edits. Projections are locked at kickoff. The floor, median, and ceiling you see pre-game are the ones evaluated against actuals.
No cherry-picking seasons. Every season from 2019 to 2025 is included by default. You can filter by season above to inspect any individual year.
Source counts are disclosed. The "Evaluated Predictions" number above (—) counts only scored player-weeks from the receipted walkforward record (2019–2025, half-PPR) — not total rows in our database (—).