Season Projections + Draft Analysis

2026 preseason — tier-first draft board with per-player distributions and draft analysis.

Rankings weigh season value AND expected games played (TVOR), vs. a 12-team replacement player. Tiers are per-position distinguishability groups, not an overall rank. Market / ECR / behavioral values are reference proxies, not true ADP (true 2026 ADP is not ingested — real consensus arrives July–August). Fantasy formats only (half_ppr / standard / full_ppr); no DFS.

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2026 Draft Board — Prep Mode

67 of 67 players · Half PPR · 12-team · 1QB

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Non-production fixture fallback: the live read model is unavailable, so this shows the vendored fixture (not production data). Values here are ECR-comparison proxies, not the live walkforward outputs.

Non-production fixture — generated Jul 10, 2026 · does not update automatically · re-export for current data · all PPG values are ECR-comparison medians, not walkforward outputs

CV#	Player	Range (ECR)	E(G)	ECR / Gap	Stance	PAD / Risk	ODC	Flags
QB1-Elite
#8	Josh Allen QBBUF	17.5–20.4–29.9 ECR range	16.3	ECR #1 -14	Elite Anchor	AElite · LowR	CONSISTENT
QB1
#25	Patrick Mahomes QBKC	15.8–18.4–26.4 ECR range	15.6	ECR #38 -62	Strong Starter	BElite · LowR	CONSISTENT	LMD
#83	Joe Burrow QBCIN	15.7–18.4–27.0 ECR range	12.8	ECR #15 +49	Injury Rebound	BElite · MedR	MODERATE	INJLMD
QB2-High
#37	Trevor Lawrence QBJAX	15.5–18.1–26.2 ECR range	15.4	ECR #43 -54	Volatile Upside	AElite · LowR	CONSISTENT	LMD
#55	Justin Herbert QBLAC	14.2–16.5–24.4 ECR range	15.7	ECR #34 -63	Volatile Upside	AElite · LowR	CONSISTENT	LMD
#56	Matthew Stafford QBLAR	16.0–18.6–26.2 ECR range	13.9	ECR #134 -36	Fool's Gold Risk	BElite · HighR	CONSISTENT	LMDAGE
#57	Jared Goff QBDET	13.9–16.1–24.1 ECR range	16.0	ECR #86 -78	Strong Starter	AElite · LowR	MODERATE	LMD
#67	Drake Maye QBNE	16.0–18.7–26.5 ECR range	13.5	ECR #3 +40	Volatile Upside	B*Elite · LowR	CONSISTENT	LMD
#77	Caleb Williams QBCHI	14.5–17.1–25.4 ECR range	14.3	ECR #23 -34	Volatile Upside	A*Elite · LowR	MODERATE	LMD
#84	Bo Nix QBDEN	14.1–16.5–24.6 ECR range	14.3	ECR #47 -37	Strong Starter	A*Elite · LowR	CONSISTENT	LMD
#111	Brock Purdy QBSF	15.2–17.9–26.5 ECR range	12.3	ECR #50 +19	Volatile Upside	BElite · MedR	CONSISTENT	INJLMD
#112	Jayden Daniels QBWAS	15.0–17.8–26.6 ECR range	12.3	ECR #12 +31	Strong Starter	B*Elite · MedR	CONSISTENT	INJLMD
#115	Dak Prescott QBDAL	14.4–16.9–25.4 ECR range	12.9	ECR #61 +3	Volatile Upside	AElite · HighR	MODERATE	INJLMD
QB2
#92	Baker Mayfield QBTB	13.0–15.2–22.1 ECR range	15.3	ECR #83 -7	Volatile Upside	BElite · MedR	CONSISTENT
#105	Lamar Jackson QBBAL	13.4–15.7–24.2 ECR range	14.1	ECR #19 +76	Strong Starter	BElite · LowR	CONSISTENT	LMD
—	Jordan Love QBGB	10.9–14.7–21.6 ECR range	11.4	ECR — —	Volatile Upside	BElite · LowR	CONSISTENT
QB3
—	Sam Darnold QBSEA	9.7–13.1–19.6 ECR range	12.1	ECR — —	Context Discount	CElite · HighR	VOLATILE	CTXVOL
RB1
#1	Bijan Robinson RBATL	11.7–16.8–24.6 ECR range	14.7	ECR #2 -3	Strong Starter	B*Elite · LowR	MODERATE
#2	Jahmyr Gibbs RBDET	11.4–16.9–25.6 ECR range	14.4	ECR #4 -2	Volatile Upside	B*Elite · LowR	VOLATILE	VOL
#3	Jonathan Taylor RBIND	11.9–17.7–26.5 ECR range	13.3	ECR #6 +1	Volatile Upside	BElite · MedR	BOOM_DEPENDENT	BOOM
#4	James Cook RBBUF	9.6–14.1–21.0 ECR range	16.5	ECR #10 -7	Volatile Upside	BHigh · LowR	VOLATILE	VOL
#5	Derrick Henry RBBAL	9.2–14.3–22.3 ECR range	15.1	ECR #33 -8	Fool's Gold Risk	AHigh · MedR	MODERATE	LMDAGE
#6	Josh Jacobs RBGB	9.9–14.5–21.8 ECR range	14.9	ECR #28 -7	Strong Starter	BHigh · MedR	MODERATE	LMDAGE
#7	De'Von Achane RBMIA	10.8–15.9–24.1 ECR range	13.2	ECR #13 +1	Volatile Upside	D*Elite · MedR	VOLATILE	VOL
RB2
#16	D'Andre Swift RBCHI	8.6–12.8–19.3 ECR range	14.3	ECR #64 -22	Volatile Upside	AHigh · LowR	MODERATE	LMD
#19	Javonte Williams RBDAL	8.7–12.6–18.8 ECR range	14.0	ECR #45 -13	Volatile Upside	AElite · LowR	VOLATILE	LMDVOL
#23	Breece Hall RBNYJ	7.7–11.9–18.4 ECR range	14.0	ECR #40 -28	Volatile Upside	AHigh · LowR	VOLATILE	LMDVOL
#24	Chase Brown RBCIN	8.9–13.1–19.6 ECR range	12.7	ECR #25 +0	Volatile Upside	D*High · MedR	VOLATILE	VOL
#27	Chuba Hubbard RBCAR	7.6–11.3–17.0 ECR range	14.2	ECR #85 -41	Volatile Upside	BHigh · LowR	VOLATILE	LMDVOL
#29	Saquon Barkley RBPHI	7.8–12.4–19.4 ECR range	12.9	ECR #21 +21	Manual Review Required	BHigh · MedR	VOLATILE	LMDAGEVOL
#35	Kyren Williams RBLAR	8.6–12.8–19.4 ECR range	12.3	ECR #37 +8	Volatile Upside	CHigh · MedR	MODERATE
RB3
#11	Christian McCaffrey RBSF	12.8–19.1–28.2 ECR range	10.4	ECR #7 +10	Fool's Gold Risk	CElite · HighR	CONSISTENT	INJAGE
#28	Travis Etienne RBNO	6.3–9.7–15.0 ECR range	16.5	ECR #42 -35	Volatile Upside	CHigh · LowR	VOLATILE	LMDVOL
#36	Aaron Jones RBMIN	6.7–10.7–17.0 ECR range	14.6	ECR #111 -42	Manual Review Required	AHigh · HighR	MODERATE	INJLMDAGE
#44	Tony Pollard RBTEN	5.9–9.3–14.7 ECR range	15.9	ECR #81 -44	Strong Starter	AHigh · LowR	MODERATE	LMDAGE
#45	Jaylen Warren RBPIT	6.2–9.1–13.6 ECR range	16.0	ECR #69 -29	Volatile Upside	AHigh · LowR	MODERATE	LMD
#48	Alvin Kamara RBNO	6.3–10.6–17.1 ECR range	13.3	ECR #155 -24	Manual Review Required	BHigh · MedR	VOLATILE	LMDAGEVOL
#50	Bucky Irving RBTB	7.8–11.8–17.9 ECR range	11.8	ECR #30 +3	Strong Starter	A*High · MedR	MODERATE	LMD
WR1-Elite
#41	Rashee Rice WRKC	10.3–14.4–21.3 ECR range	10.5	ECR #46 +27	Manual Review Required	B*High · HighR	MODERATE	INJLMDODR
WR1
#9	Amon-Ra St. Brown WRDET	9.0–12.8–19.6 ECR range	16.4	ECR #14 -1	Strong Starter	AHigh · LowR	MODERATE
#12	Ja'Marr Chase WRCIN	8.6–12.8–20.6 ECR range	15.4	ECR #5 +2	Volatile Upside	AHigh · LowR	VOLATILE	VOL
#13	Puka Nacua WRLAR	10.3–14.7–22.0 ECR range	13.2	ECR #8 +9	Strong Starter	B*High · LowR	MODERATE
WR2
#10	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WRSEA	10.3–13.9–20.4 ECR range	14.5	ECR #9 +3	Volatile Upside	A*Elite · LowR	VOLATILE	VOL
#15	George Pickens WRDAL	8.2–11.6–17.6 ECR range	16.3	ECR #31 -1	Manual Review Required	BHigh · LowR	VOLATILE	LMDVOLODR
#17	Drake London WRATL	8.3–11.8–18.1 ECR range	15.3	ECR #22 +0	Volatile Upside	AHigh · LowR	VOLATILE	VOL
#18	Alec Pierce WRIND	8.2–11.2–16.6 ECR range	16.0	ECR #114 -29	Manual Review Required	AHigh · LowR	VOLATILE	LMDVOLODR
#20	Zay Flowers WRBAL	8.5–11.9–17.9 ECR range	14.4	ECR #67 -12	Manual Review Required	A*High · LowR	VOLATILE	LMDVOLODR
#21	Mike Evans WRSF	8.3–12.4–19.7 ECR range	13.7	ECR #77 -21	Manual Review Required	AHigh · HighR	VOLATILE	INJLMDAGE
#22	CeeDee Lamb WRDAL	7.5–10.8–16.9 ECR range	15.7	ECR #16 -5	Strong Starter	AHigh · LowR	MODERATE
#26	Garrett Wilson WRNYJ	7.9–11.3–17.4 ECR range	14.5	ECR #52 -5	Manual Review Required	AHigh · MedR	MODERATE	INJLMDODR
#30	Chris Olave WRNO	8.3–11.6–17.3 ECR range	13.8	ECR #36 +10	Manual Review Required	AHigh · MedR	VOLATILE	INJVOLODR
#31	A.J. Brown WRNE	7.3–10.8–17.5 ECR range	14.7	ECR #44 -2	Volatile Upside	AHigh · LowR	VOLATILE	VOL
#32	Davante Adams WRLAR	7.2–11.0–18.0 ECR range	14.4	ECR #62 +2	Manual Review Required	AHigh · MedR	VOLATILE	LMDAGEVOL
#33	Terry McLaurin WRWAS	7.4–10.4–15.9 ECR range	15.3	ECR #73 -12	Strong Starter	AHigh · LowR	MODERATE	LMD
#38	Rome Odunze WRCHI	8.3–11.8–18.2 ECR range	13.0	ECR #88 -4	Manual Review Required	A*High · LowR	VOLATILE	LMDVOLODR
#39	Brian Thomas WRJAX	8.4–11.5–16.9 ECR range	13.4	ECR #101 +1	Manual Review Required	B*Elite · LowR	VOLATILE	LMDVOLODR
#43	Jerry Jeudy WRCLE	7.3–10.1–15.4 ECR range	14.8	ECR #203 -26	Manual Review Required	BElite · LowR	VOLATILE	LMDVOLODR
#49	Xavier Worthy WRKC	7.7–10.6–15.6 ECR range	13.2	ECR #161 -14	Manual Review Required	A*Elite · LowR	VOLATILE	LMDVOLODR
WR3
#34	DK Metcalf WRPIT	6.8–9.9–15.5 ECR range	16.0	ECR #92 -27	Strong Starter	AHigh · LowR	MODERATE	LMD
#40	DJ Moore WRBUF	6.5–9.4–14.9 ECR range	16.3	ECR #76 -53	Manual Review Required	AHigh · LowR	VOLATILE	LMDVOLODR
#47	DeVonta Smith WRPHI	6.0–9.0–14.5 ECR range	15.8	ECR #71 -5	Manual Review Required	AHigh · LowR	VOLATILE	LMDVOLODR
#60	Justin Jefferson WRMIN	5.7–8.9–15.0 ECR range	15.2	ECR #17 +38	Manual Review Required	AHigh · MedR	MODERATE	CTXLMDODR
TE1-Elite
#14	Trey McBride TEARI	8.9–13.2–18.6 ECR range	14.8	ECR #27 -9	Volatile Upside	AElite · LowR	VOLATILE	VOL
TE1
#42	Tucker Kraft TEGB	8.6–13.0–18.7 ECR range	11.8	ECR #90 +0	Manual Review Required	A*High · MedR	VOLATILE	INJLMDVOL
#61	George Kittle TESF	6.4–11.3–17.6 ECR range	12.1	ECR #130 +5	Manual Review Required	AHigh · MedR	VOLATILE	LMDAGEVOL
#66	Brock Bowers TELV	6.0–10.4–16.0 ECR range	13.0	ECR #35 +18	Volatile Upside	D*High · MedR	VOLATILE	LMDVOL
TE2
#46	Travis Kelce TEKC	5.3–9.1–14.0 ECR range	16.0	ECR #139 -38	Manual Review Required	AHigh · MedR	VOLATILE	LMDAGEVOL

Fixture: player_review_board_2026.csv v2 (non-production fallback) · 2026-07-11 · not a production data source

Draft analysis

Source: V2 season read model (half_ppr, 2026) · market / ECR / behavioral values are reference proxies, not true ADP (true 2026 ADP is not ingested) · fantasy formats only, no DFS · point-in-time snapshot.

V2 Draft Gap Analysis

2026

ECR ranks shown (Sleeper search_rank proxy) — true ADP unavailable. Blue = behavioral model. Green = analytical model. Delta = behavioral pick# − analytical pick#.

Expectation Profile

Season

Format

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V2 Dual-Model Pick Trace

Half PPR · 2026

ECR ranks shown (Sleeper proxy) — true ADP unavailable.

Model: