Glossary
Definitions for all terms used in the Toxicology Lab and Custom Venom's projection system.
Toxin
A predictive signal used by Custom Venom to identify opportunities and risks in player projections. Toxins are based on historical patterns that correlate with player performance outcomes.
Fire
When a toxin is assigned to a player for a specific game or week. Each fire represents a prediction that can later be evaluated for accuracy.
If the "VOLUME_KING" toxin fires on a running back, we're predicting high usage volume.
Badge
The internal code name for a toxin. Used interchangeably with "toxin" in technical contexts. User-facing content uses "toxin" while code uses "badge".
Tier
The classification of a toxin based on its impact level and reliability. Tiers include CRITICAL, PRIMARY, SECONDARY, CONTEXTUAL, and DFS-specific tiers.
Accuracy Rate
The percentage of times a toxin's prediction was correct, calculated as: (Correct Predictions ÷ Total Evaluations) × 100%.
Sample Size
The number of times a toxin has been evaluated. Larger sample sizes provide more reliable accuracy rates. We recommend at least 30 samples for statistical significance.
Confidence Interval
A range within which the true accuracy rate is likely to fall. We use Wilson score intervals, which are especially accurate for small sample sizes and edge cases.
Wilson Score
A statistical method for calculating confidence intervals that provides more reliable bounds than simple percentage intervals, especially with small sample sizes or extreme percentages.
Directional Accuracy
Whether the toxin correctly predicted the direction of performance (boom vs bust, over vs under). A toxin is directionally accurate if its implied prediction matched the actual outcome.
Evaluation
The process of comparing a toxin's prediction to the actual outcome after the game is complete. Only fires with known outcomes can be evaluated.
Total Fires
The total number of times a toxin has been assigned to players. This may exceed evaluations if some games haven't been played yet or outcomes aren't known.
CRITICAL
The highest-impact toxin tier. These signals indicate significant risk or opportunity and have strong historical accuracy. Pay close attention when these fire.
RED_FLAG is a CRITICAL toxin indicating major concerns.
PRIMARY
Core predictive signals with proven track records. These toxins form the backbone of projection adjustments and are reliable across most situations.
SECONDARY
Supporting signals that add context and nuance. Most valuable when combined with PRIMARY toxins or in specific situations.
CONTEXTUAL
Situational signals that apply in specific game contexts like primetime games, divisional matchups, or weather conditions.
DFS Indicator
Toxins specifically designed for daily fantasy sports optimization. Focus on ownership levels, leverage plays, and tournament strategy.
Shadow Toxin
An experimental toxin in the testing phase. Shadow toxins are tracked for accuracy but may not yet influence projections. They're being evaluated for potential promotion to verified status.
Best Position
The position for which a toxin has the highest historical accuracy. Use toxins with extra confidence when they match their best position.
Worst Position
The position for which a toxin has the lowest historical accuracy. Consider discounting or ignoring toxins when they match their worst position.
DFS
Daily Fantasy Sports. Contests where you build a lineup for a single day or week rather than a full season. Custom Venom provides specific toxins optimized for DFS strategy.
GPP
Guaranteed Prize Pool tournament. Large DFS contests with many entries where you need differentiated lineups to win. Some toxins are specifically designed for GPP leverage.
Leverage Play
A DFS strategy of rostering underowned players in correlated spots. Toxins like CHALK_BUSTER identify potential leverage opportunities.
Ownership
The percentage of DFS lineups that roster a particular player. High ownership means you need to differentiate elsewhere; low ownership provides leverage in GPPs.
Boom
When a player significantly outperforms their projection. Typically defined as 20%+ above projected points. Some toxins specifically predict boom potential.
Bust
When a player significantly underperforms their projection. Typically defined as 20%+ below projected points. Some toxins identify bust risk.
Delta
The difference between projected and actual fantasy points. Positive delta means outperformance; negative delta means underperformance.
Projection
Custom Venom's predicted fantasy point total for a player in a given week. Toxins modify base projections up or down based on situational factors.