Methodology
Learn how Custom Venom's toxin system works, how we measure accuracy, and how to interpret the data.
What Are Toxins?
Toxins are predictive signals that Custom Venom uses to identify opportunities and risks in player projections. Each toxin represents a specific pattern or condition that has historically correlated with player performance outcomes.
When a toxin is "assigned" to a player, we call this a "fire". The system tracks whether each fire correctly predicted the outcome, allowing us to calculate accuracy rates and continuously improve our models.
Toxin Tiers
Toxins are organized into tiers based on their impact and reliability:
CRITICAL
Highest-impact signals that indicate significant risk or opportunity. These toxins have strong historical accuracy and can dramatically affect projections.
PRIMARY
Core predictive signals with proven track records. These form the backbone of our projection adjustments.
SECONDARY
Supporting signals that add context and nuance to projections. Valuable when combined with primary toxins.
CONTEXTUAL
Situational signals that apply in specific game contexts. Important for DFS lineup decisions.
DFS Indicators
Signals specifically designed for daily fantasy optimization. Focus on volume, role, and matchup advantages.
How Accuracy Is Calculated
Basic Formula
A prediction is "correct" when the toxin's implied direction matches the actual outcome. For example, a "boom" toxin firing on a player who outperforms their projection is correct.
Wilson Score Confidence Interval
We use the Wilson score interval to calculate confidence bounds on accuracy rates. This method is preferred over simple percentage intervals because it:
- Provides accurate intervals even with small sample sizes
- Never produces impossible values (below 0% or above 100%)
- Accounts for the inherent uncertainty in statistical estimation
Toxins with fewer than 30 evaluations have wider confidence intervals. Use these accuracy rates with appropriate caution.
Interpreting the Data
High Accuracy (≥65%)
The toxin has a strong historical track record. Consider it a reliable signal, especially when sample size is large.
Medium Accuracy (50-65%)
Better than random chance. Valuable when combined with other signals or in specific contexts.
Low Accuracy (<50%)
Historical performance below coin-flip. May indicate the toxin needs recalibration or is context-dependent.
Insufficient Data
Fewer than 30 evaluations means the accuracy rate is preliminary. Weight accordingly.
Position-Specific Performance
Not all toxins perform equally across positions. A toxin that works well for wide receivers might be less predictive for tight ends due to differences in usage patterns, matchup dynamics, and scoring volatility.
Each toxin's detail page shows its "Best" and "Worst" positions based on historical accuracy. Use this information to weight signals appropriately when building lineups.
General Position Patterns
More predictable, lower variance
Volume-dependent, game script sensitive
Matchup-driven, high variance
Usage varies widely, boom/bust
Game script and red zone dependent
Opponent-driven, highly volatile
Our Commitment to Transparency
The Toxicology Lab exists because we believe you deserve to see how our predictions perform. We publish all accuracy data—good and bad—so you can make informed decisions about which signals to trust.
Toxins that underperform are continuously evaluated for recalibration or retirement. This isn't just about transparency—it's how we build a system you can actually rely on.